COVID-19: Three Years & Still Counting

This week marks three years from the first week of America’s COVID-19 lockdown. We have taken to marking that week as the “before times”; the time before it forever changed our worlds. Whether you caught the virus, or did not, still it affected you. Perhaps your job changed, and you started working from home. Possibly you were a teacher and had to learn to teach over some type of communication network. Or, sadly, you were a nurse or physician caught up in the horrors of those early days when patients were dying and you could not figure out how to keep them alive. Maybe you were a parent trying to juggle work and kids at home and trying to keep everyone well. Or, you were just an ordinary person with a grandmother in a nursing home whom you could no longer visit and could get no one to tell you how she was doing. Masks and medical supplies, such as ventilators, were in short supply. Neighborhood groups created teams to make masks in their homes; industrial factories changed their production lines to build ventilators. Nurses and physicians traveled to heavily affected cities to buffer beleaguered staff. Morgues piled bodies in refrigerated trucks when they ran out of space. We were in this fight together for a while. Pretty early on, a viral testing kit became available.

We may never quantify the costs of this virus in terms of the loneliness and isolation it caused. We can measure the number of deaths and the vaccines given, but that still does not accurately quantify the costs of the real human suffering it brought about. The illness kept families separated; many could not be with their loved ones as they lay dying. Children no longer had extended families around to celebrate their births or birthdays; we postponed weddings since the authorities forbade or discouraged large gatherings. I applaud the service workers who kept the buses running and the grocery stores open, so some activities could continue.

Then politics stepped in and confused the messages even more. To mask or not to mask? To isolate or go out and about? The President's team gave out conflicting messages, and in the absence of a vaccine, the public was quite unsure. Reluctant to evoke ancient remedies such as wearing a bag of garlic around one’s neck(!) no authority had a clue, initially, how the virus was even transmitted. The virologists soon determined that the respiratory system could transmit these viral droplets through the air and emphasized that well-fitting masks were the only everyday barrier.

This incoherent message allowed all the usual and unusual quacks to step in and promote all kinds of strange “cures”. Some included ultraviolet lights, deworming medicines, Hydroxychloroquine, bleach, and various cleansing rituals. None worked, unsurprisingly. Certain groups pushed conspiracy theories. Anti-Asian violence increased as the virus was first identified in China. There was little leadership from the White House or the Center for Disease Control (CDC), which was politicized and censored. The President did not want to wear a mask; he wanted to get out and campaign. He did not want the country to shut down; he wanted commerce to continue. So, sadly, the country then divided into Red and Blue factions with governors in many red states refusing to enact mask mandates and those in blue states enforcing such mandates to a degree. Florida did not wish to chase away tourists by requiring masks. Texas state officials overturned mandates issued by local authorities. Canada and Mexico closed their borders to Americans for a while. International travel became rare. In the absence of a vaccine, countries required proof of negative tests to enter.

As I reread my narrative here, it sounds as if I am composing a scenario for a sci-fi novel, but as we all know, these things happened. Doesn’t some of this information, in retrospect, seem absurd? In these three years, what have we learned?

Scientists still are uncertain where the virus originated. There are two schools of thought operating today. One is that it originated from a viral lab experiment gone wrong in a research lab in Wuhan, China, where the authorities identified the first cases. Although, as described by Hopkins, most of the early cases were associated with the wild animal market and neighboring area; the lab was on the other side of the city and across a river from the market. The second theory is that the virus jumped from wild animals to humans in this market in Wuhan, that was known for exploiting these unregulated sources of food. COVID developed in this manner from animals to humans; authorities attributed this virus to bats that infected an intermediary animal and then eaten by humans. Originally investigators thought an animal known as the pangolin was the intermediary, more recently authorities suggested the raccoon dog, (an animal related to foxes) might be the culprit. In the 2003 outbreak of SARS, they also identified bats as carriers of the coronavirus.

But scientists came to the rescue; many research labs raced to develop effective vaccines. Some chose tried-and-true methods of using weakened or inactive viruses, while other labs used a new technology, that of a MrNA method. But about nine months after the virus first hit our shores, we had vaccines! Of course, they came after a tumultuous election and changes of administration. They presented residents with a vaccine without an effective delivery system in place or formal FDA approval. But, gradually Americans got their vaccines. However, this, too, was subject to politics. Anti-vaxxers protested about its hasty development or against vaccines in general. Others did not like the mandates about public sector workers being required to take the vaccine. Police, firefighters, and nurses in some cities protested against vaccine requirements for their jobs; the courts agreed with their bosses.

Since the Chinese government has not been forthcoming with the world scientific community and allowed an even exchange of research information, the origin will probably remain murky. It would have been nice if they all put aside nationalities to save humanity, but once again, politics intervened and finger-pointing ensued. The actual death toll worldwide is subject to under-reporting by many nations, whether because of a lack of testing capability or hidden for political reasons. But the numbers below represent the best numbers the World Health Organization (WHO) and others have been able to determine. In the US, we are still experiencing over 300 deaths per day.The totals are indeed shocking in their scope.

The COVID figures to date: (NY Times)

Total worldwide case total: 678,417,501. 

The total worldwide number of deaths: 6,878,832.

United States case total: 103,535,689

United States death total: 1,131,763.

Maryland total cases: 1,368,228.

Maryland total deaths: 16,646.

We estimate the world population in 2023 is slightly over eight Billion. (8,108,605,388)

We estimate the population of the United States on this date is: 336,247,970.

We estimate the population of Maryland is: 6,298,325.

There is still much unknown information. What is the toll on families that have lost a parent or a grandparent who was the caregiver? Estimates are currently that the pandemic orphaned 140,000 children. How is our country caring for these children? Schools are learning how much knowledge was lost during distance learning as proficiency levels dropped across the country. Scientists documented that the syndrome of Long Covid or ongoing systemic issues after having the disease continues to plague many survivors. However, neither physicians nor scientists cannot predict how long these symptoms will persist as the manifestations are different in many cases. Americans appear to have vaccine fatigue; while we vaccinated most, (68% of the general population, but 93% of the elderly), many fewer have received the recommended boosters. The average life expectancy in America dropped during the pandemic because of the high number of fatalities. Epidemiologists expect that this virus will, like many before it, become ongoing. And just as Americans annually (well, most Americans) line up for the flu shot in the fall, soon the COVID booster type shot will accompany it.

Have we learned anything from the pandemic? I certainly hope so. We have found out that regional differences can hamper public health efforts, that willing politicians can distort public health data, and that conspiracy theories interfere with healthcare. I have spent my adult life in health care. I believe in caring for others. Consequently, I have difficulty understanding why someone would put their own individualism ahead of the need for society to be safe. Why would someone think they don’t have to wear a mask and thus compromise the health of a cancer patient on immunosuppressive meds who might be in the same room for needed services? Why would one think their desire to attend a wedding overrides the need to isolate if they are infected or have been exposed? (One wedding with an infected guest led to 50 documented cases of Covid.) Similar events happened with sports teams; you know those guys who think they are invincible and won’t be brought down by a virus!

As our world becomes even more interconnected, there is even less hope of containing the next pandemic-and there will be one, probably sooner than 100 years. Scientists need to develop a type of base vaccine, perhaps with MrNA technology that with a bit of tweaking can meet the challenge of the next worldwide virus. One aspect of COVID that differed from previous related viruses was its ability to change and create new variants and sub-variants. We have seen this before, but not with the rapidity shown by this one. To lessen that occurrence, we need to ensure that there is widespread vaccination as soon as possible, once scientists identify a new epidemic, to prevent a pandemic. Scientists need to communicate and cooperate better with each other and with the WHO to help prevent future pandemics. Think about what we have learned. Ebola went from animals to people, as did AIDS, SARS, and MERS. The 1918 epidemic was originally thought to have been a swine flu, but eventually, isolation of the virus from tissue (bodies buried in the Alaskan tundra were well preserved and examined) discerned an avian or bird origin. As the habitat of unknown animals continues to shrink, we may face more untoward experiences and researchers must know these possibilities.

Just thought I’d mention a fact unrelated to the pandemic. Twenty years ago this week, America attacked Iraq with the pretense that it had weapons of mass destruction. We did not find such weapons. Iraq did not take part in the destructive events of 911 (another pretense used). Saudi Arabians did. We created regime change; the country remains fractured. Over 4500 Americas and countless numbers of Iraqi civilians died. Future administrations should not repeat these actions.

“Til next week-Peace!