One Million US Covid Deaths

 

Do you remember that day in the Spring of 2020 when the New York Times published the names of the 100,000 people in the US who had died of Covid? And they mentioned other days when the modelers at the University of Washington predicted deaths without a vaccine at the top level to be over 1.2 million? How improbable did those numbers seem to us then? I would bet that there are few people here now who have not known someone who died from this virus; I guess that there are none who do not know someone who contracted the illness.

Even now, some 27 months after the virus was identified in this country, we still have daily deaths occurring from these ever-changing variants. Authorities recently quoted in the Washington Post reported they fear another 100 million new cases might happen if the expected fall seasonal outbreaks occur as predicted. The vaccines have shown less effectiveness against the latest manifestations, even with boosters, but have decreased the severity of the illness among vaccinated people. Also, according to the Post:

            "Omicron has since spun off many sub-variants that are even more transmissible than               the original strain. The BA.2 omicron sub-variant continues to account for a majority of new infections in the United States, but the BA.2.12.1 sub-variant is rapidly gaining ground and may soon become the most common strain. Meanwhile, two other highly transmissible variants, BA.4 and BA.5, have fueled a recent surge in infections in South Africa."

The Biden Administration requested more money from Congress to stall this expected wave, but the funds are being held up over disputes about the border and changes to lessen the restrictions called "Title 42" which were imposed by the former administration under emergency pandemic orders.

Well, today, the New York Times published a scatter graph across an outline of the country of the one million deaths recorded so far from Covid in the US to date. About one-quarter of the deaths (about 205,126) occurred in nursing homes. {I truly believe that we have failed our elderly citizens as poor nursing home practices, lack of staffing, and inadequate safeguards condemned them to die in isolation, away from the touch of loved ones. No matter what some might say, not all were at deaths' door when they were admitted; some were recovering from surgery or had mobility issues after a stroke or an accidental fall. They had planned to return home, but were not given that chance.}

The Times' in-depth report showed that the disease was not distributed evenly across the country as the South saw far more deaths and more frequent and severe waves than other parts of the country, (378,472), the West the fewest, (189,805), and the Midwest and the Northeast each with about 211,000. Covid was the third highest cause of death for seniors over 65, after cancer and heart disease. Hispanics had the highest rates of death and were followed closely by Black patients who died. Blacks and Hispanics also were more likely to work as service workers and thus be in more vulnerable jobs with greater exposure. Sadly, over 400,000 people have died since the vaccines were widely available to all adults/teens. Consequently, the death rate for unvaccinated people is nine times that of vaccinated people.

Income, age, education, and party affiliation also affected the statistics as numbers from the three largest US cities showed:

            Although large cities had large outbreaks, the areas of the city with the lowest incomes            also had the highest death rates.

            Areas where the population was better educated or had college degrees showed lower            incidence and fewer deaths. Additionally:

            Republicans showed lower rates of vaccinations and in areas where Republicans                    earned less than $2000/month, the population was twice as likely to be unvaccinated as Republican areas with incomes over $5000/month. So, there is a wealth gap even in vaccination rates!

            The South also has the highest numbers of people with multiple health conditions,                    such as obesity and diabetes; estimates are thar over 30% of diabetics were afflicted and died.

            Many areas in the South resisted mask mandates, released them earlier, if imposed,                and curtailed shutdowns and virtual schooling periods.  

So, where do we go from here? Covid numbers remain high and are increasing. Soon, schools will be out and families will travel again. Testing centers have closed, and reporting of Covid cases is no longer routine; America has moved on, while Covid has not. Health care experts will see cases rise without the adequate testing and case tracing necessary to track spikes and prepare for regional outbreaks. Some say to treat Covid as if it were the flu, and just prepare for seasonal surges now and then; however, it is more contagious than the seasonal flu and obviously deadly to immunocompromised individuals and the elderly.

I wonder how many readers here have read the latest Louise Penny book. In the novel-The Madness of Crowds -set in the future in Canada after the "plague" as she calls it has passed, she discusses a changed populace, but she calls into question the lack of care for the elderly. The investigator, her character Inspector Gamache, looks into the large numbers of elderly who were left in their nursing homes, abandoned by the staff, to eventually perish, some said by design, as they had outlived their usefulness. He investigated this moral failing and institutional movement that ballooned during the period of contagion and isolation, and that said not all should be saved.

I challenge the reader to look at our statistics and ask, couldn't we, shouldn't we, as a nation, have better served our poor and our elderly? Shouldn't we have provided for our stressed-out healthcare providers who needed Personal Protective Equipment more than thanks and the banging of pots and pans?

When I look at China and the Draconian tactics that are being used to contain the virus, I am happy that we did not do that here. But I am saddened that a pandemic that should have been addressed by sensible and serious medical professionals and epidemiologists here became a political football bandied about with talk of bleach, Hydroxychloroquine, and political conspiracies. Wearing of masks and quarantines were not observed adequately and were downplayed by our leaders in the early days. Once a vaccine was ready, the groundwork was already in place to rally against it. America likes to say it is a problem-solving country, but here we saw a problem and found solutions, and then many were discouraged from following them. As a healthcare provider, this leaves me bewildered. This pandemic is not over and many more will die if we abandon the safeguards that have so far served us well.

The US Covid numbers are but a portion of the deaths across the world. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that over 15 million have died across the globe and concedes that number is low since India has vastly under-reported and as it is expected, so have Russia and China. Korea has now admitted to an outbreak, and it has minimal vaccination rates. China admits to under-vaccinating its elderly citizens; many other countries also have totaled low vaccination rates. WHO leaders indicated they think the pandemic is here to stay and will eventually become endemic, so harsh lockdowns are no longer necessary, but notes that routine precautions remain viable for the foreseeable future.

Current COVID Stats:

The last two weeks have shown a 60% increase nationally in cases; Maryland has had an 84% increase over the same time. The current daily case rate is 90,423; the total national incidence has reached 82,414,028. National death cases are low at 311; hospitalizations are also low. The US is now 66% vaccinated with 71% having at least one vaccine; 91% of all seniors are now vaccinated. In MD, 76% of the state is vaccinated. Current MD cases are now up to 1,737, but deaths are only 5. Frederick County reports only 24 cases per 100,000 at this time.

And life goes on-or it doesn't:

This weekend saw violence across the country. A teen-aged gunman published a white supremacist screed about replacement theory online, drove over 200 miles to a black Buffalo neighborhood grocery, and started shooting with a semi-automatic weapon. He killed ten people, including a security guard. In Milwaukee, violence erupted as fans left the arena where the Bucks played a playoff game; several were shot. In Laguna Woods, California, parishioners at a Taiwanese Church were shocked as a gunman entered, locked the doors, and started shooting; one person was killed and several were injured. The shooter was restrained and was unknown to the church-goers; he was also Asian. An argument at a flea market near Houston, Texas turned into a shooting incident, with several wounded and two killed.

Too many men with too many guns and too much hate in our country; we must find a way to turn these actions around. I wish there was a simple answer, but when others make money by dividing our country, I doubt that my quiet voice will make a difference, but I can hope.

This weekend also saw women's marches in over 400 cities in this country protesting the draft Supreme Court opinion on abortion that, if accurate, would reverse the previously decided Roe case from 49 years ago. Considered by many to be settled law, this wide-reaching opinion was not under question in the Mississippi law that would have made 15 weeks gestation the date where abortion were restricted in contrast to the Roe date of 23 weeks. Justice Alito, instead, leaped across settled law to a total restriction of any right to an abortion, citing no mention under the Constitution and allowed each state to set its' own restrictions. Citing a remote 18thCentury judicial opinion by a writer who believed in burning witches, it seems that this scholarship should be questioned. This potential restriction has galvanized women across the country who vow opposition. While Senate Minority leader McConnell lied and claimed that codifying Roe would allow abortion on demand and throughout the third trimester, he also announced that he would pass a national ban once Republicans gained control of the Senate. A pro-forma Senate Democratic move to pass a national bill to put Roe into law could not override the filibuster, Manchin, and Republican opposition. Democrats claim that negative votes on this bill will help them in the mid-terms; Republicans claim that inflation concerns will dominate-they hope! Meanwhile, red states are dusting off old laws forbidding abortion and just waiting for the moment to put them into effect. Nowhere is there understanding that, legal or not, abortions will continue, they will just be harder to obtain and possibly unsafe.

"Til next week-Peace!