Chaos in DC. War in Israel, Week 2

Twelve days ago, a revolt from some House Republicans led to the dismissal of the current House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy of California. Since then, no House member has gathered enough votes in straw polls to take the vote to the House floor. The initial front-runner, Steve Scalise of Louisiana, lost votes as his persuasion attempts faltered. The next in line, Jim Jordan of Ohio, the favorite of the MAGA crowd and endorsed by the former president, fell short in votes also, despite some strong-arming from his supporters.

As I mentioned last week, each man carries some baggage from a previous time. A recent New York Times op-ed by David Firestone opined that “both Scalise and Jordan were worse than McCarthy because they misunderstood the nature of power.” As he further notes, both candidates have cast doubts about the 2020 election, voted against certifying the results, and did not support funding for Ukraine. Firestone discusses the faction in the House that views compromise as an anathema and instead prefers confrontations as a way of achieving leverage on some unrelated topic. We famously knew Jordan as a figurative bomb thrower on issues such as the Affordable Care Act, cutting money for Planned Parenthood, and immigration. According to Firestone, Jordan has helped lead at least three shutdown efforts. Scalise has apologized for speaking at a White Nationalist rally and opposed the creation of a holiday for Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries noted this week on Meet The Press that informal talks are ongoing about finding a bipartisan solution to the leadership problem. He said that Democrats “want to ensure that votes are taken on bills that have substantial Democratic support and substantial Republican support so that the extremists aren’t able to dictate the agenda.” They removed McCarthy because it angered the extremists when he got Democratic votes to pass the Continuing Resolution (CR) and keep the government from shutting down. The extremists wanted the shutdown. Our party-based system has never had a power-sharing agreement, so I am eager to see how this might work. McCarthy had agreed to lopsided Republican Committee lineups, as well as giving the extreme right-wing members choice spots on the Rules, Oversight, and Judiciary Committees so they could prevent bills from coming out of committee and investigate any issue they chose to look at.

Some House members are feeling more urgency now that the War in Israel will need approval of funding for additional weapons, while the issue of more funding for Ukraine is still unsettled in the House. Ukraine funding was too controversial, so they left it out of the CR with McCarthy promising to review the issue and bring it up later before the funding deadline. That deadline is now only about one month away.

In the meantime, no bills can be proposed or passed out of committees, the House can send no legislation to the Senate, and no money can be appropriated, because the interim Speaker has only limited powers. Another Times editorial noted:

“A new speaker should also commit to plain dealing with Democratic colleagues and may need them to prevent another putsch. Mr. McCarthy lost faith among Democrats by failing to keep his word and honor a deal over spending caps that he negotiated with the White House in May. The next speaker might consider that a good starting point for negotiations.

Once a speaker is chosen, the House will have less than 40 days to avert yet another standoff over a shutdown, and members of goodwill in both parties will again need to show that they are willing and able to compromise; the Democrats could permit more spending on border security, and Republicans should continue the vital flow of aid to Ukraine, among other issues.

The House Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, said Tuesday that his caucus would “remain willing to find common ground on an enlightened path forward,” one that did not leave the public’s business at the mercy of a few extremists. Whichever leader Republicans choose should agree to a similar path.”

 

Meanwhile, Americans, and many across the world, wonder when the House will get its’ act together and function as a cohesive arm of government. While I’m not holding my breath, I remain hopeful that there must be some leaders in the Republican Party, old statesmen or women, that can start to pull a solution together that will serve both parties and the American people. We shall see.

And in other news…

The news from the Middle East continues to get worse. The expected Israeli ground offensive into Gaza has not yet started, but the Palestinian population of Gaza is on the move toward a somewhat safer southern area. Israel dropped leaflets last week urging the population to move away from Gaza City. Hundreds of thousands are now on the move, by donkey cart, automobile, buses, and on foot. Some may find shelter with relatives, but many have no destination except to get away from the bombings and the war they did not start. Egypt will open its closed crossing on Monday for foreign nationals and those with dual citizenship to leave the Gaza Strip. There are approximately 500 Americans who live there now. Egypt did not yet welcome any exodus of Palestinians, although it will allow some humanitarian supplies to come into the country. Israel said it will turn the water back on in southern Gaza, though some wonder how this will work without power.

Many people are holding their breath to see what the Israeli military will do. Secretary Blinken and President Biden have both agreed that while Israel can effectively destroy much of Gaza, some restraint, and protection for civilians is necessary. The Rules of War do not allow for indiscriminate attacks on civilians or civilian infrastructure. However, this restraint becomes more difficult when the Hamas forces shoot rockets from the roofs of schools or hide ammunition next to hospitals. It is also well-known that street fighting in urban areas leads to high casualties, both civilian and military, especially in an area riddled with secret tunnels and caches of weapons. And, unquestionably, the issue of hostages complicates the promised search and rescue efforts.

Although the number of casualties is incomplete and still rising, here is a rough estimate so far: 1400 Israelis have been killed; (30 Americans are in that number), and more than 3000 have been injured.  2670 Palestinians have been killed; half of whom are children, again, thousands more have been injured. Although there are some Americans unaccounted for, some are thought to be in the group of 150 hostages Hamas took to the Gaza Strip. This group included men, women, and children. Qatar is in talks with Hamas leaders for the release of the women and children being held, but they have reached no agreements to date. Hamas has threatened to kill the hostages if any attempts are made to free them.

Many questions have been raised concerning how this attack by Hamas could have been carried out with no Israeli military warning. Some agreed with my previous assessment that protests and other turmoil over the Supreme Court and other changes may have allowed some to take their eyes away from defense, while others believe that the continued troubles in the West Bank made Gaza seem less problematic.

Some pundits believe that this will be a prolonged war and do not agree on a solution. While a Two-state proposal has been on the table for a while, it does not allow for adequate protections for two groups who each have no trust for the other side. How, then, can they be expected to live almost side by side without walls or military troops in place? I have no answers; this has been a thorny problem for generations. When you have two competing nationalities claiming the same territories, something has to change. I do not know why the two states have to be on the same strip of land. Could Egypt, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia use some of their wealth or donate land to help establish a new state for the displaced Palestinians? Could the Israelis stop placing settlements and displacing Palestinians on contested land such as the West Bank? These lands were annexed by Israel and are governed under its authority with an ineffective local administration. The areas are not peaceful, as the locals have little autonomy. The far-right religious in Israel believe settlements are their right even as they displace those who have lived on the land for generations. Conflict has to result and must be resolved. But as long as the far-right group keeps the current administration in power, they may build settlements. The U.S. has been discouraging this settlement building across several presidencies.

The news today noted that Netanyahu invited President Biden to come for a personal visit to Israel. (This is the same man who disrespected both President Obama and VP Biden when they were in office, to the great joy of the Republicans.) I think the President should stay out of an active war zone. But I don’t think a photo op and macho walk are that noteworthy. So, it will probably happen. Maybe they could meet on the aircraft carrier instead?

I guess this is why I write instead of working with the diplomatic corps. I’m not one for sugarcoating difficult situations. There have been many attempts, some admittedly half-hearted, to solve this problem over the decades, but none have succeeded. Now is the time to think of a solution.

‘Til next week – Peace, please world.