They Want to Burn the Place Down

 

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy sent the members of the US House home this weekend because the Republicans were in chaos. His members could not agree and get enough votes to pass a continuing resolution. They could not agree on the funding bills necessary to provide for the ongoing functions of the government. As he said in frustration about the radical members of his caucus, “They want to burn the place down,”

The Senate has already acted in a bipartisan fashion to continue to keep the government running. However, since funding must come from the House, any actions are stymied. So, in six days, the government will shut down if the bills or resolutions are not approved by both Houses.

Of course, this means that government employees will not receive their paychecks, and governmental facilities, not considered essential, will shut down. For example, Air Traffic Controllers are considered essential, so planes will continue to fly safely. The passport office is not in that category, so passport renewals and new applications will be delayed. They will restrict access to government buildings such as museums on the Mall to essential personnel. So, tourists cannot get into the museums or facilities run by the National Park Service if the rules from previous shut-downs are used again. However, Members of Congress will continue to receive their paychecks, even if government workers will not. (Usually, after a shutdown is resolved, retroactive bills are passed and workers get paid. For lower-level employees who might live paycheck-to-paycheck, getting those funds later will not buy groceries, or pay the rent or car payment due today.)

Fortunately, for the millions of Seniors on Social Security, who depend on their monthly checks, those funds come from a different funding source and should arrive on time. Military paychecks, however, may be delayed.

Previous shut-downs have interrupted valuable scientific research when staff was not on site to monitor experiments or take care of lab animals used in that research. With luck, staff will take measures to prevent this from happening again this year.

Some have said the shutdown is happening because DJT wants it to happen and mistakenly believes this chaos will delay his upcoming trials. The Justice Department will continue to function regardless, and hearings and motions will move forward on time. The trials in Georgia and New York State are outside of Federal funding and they will continue.

Statistically, whenever shutdowns have happened, Republicans are blamed. Rightfully so, in my mind, since they historically are the party pushing the shutdowns.

Shutdown	Days	Control of House
95-96	21	Republicans
2013	16	Republicans
Jan 2018	3	Republicans
2018–19	35	Republicans (until Jan 2019)

 

A lot of politicking relies on trust between two parties. A representative may go to a colleague and ask for support or funding for a cause or program they champion. In return, they might do the same later for that colleague's pet project. But, some in this Congress do not operate by that same rule, according to what their Speaker McCarthy said the other day, "You think you have an agreement with certain people, and by the time one gets to the floor, they have changed their mind and won't agree with the measure" If the agreements cannot and will not be honored, the Congress cannot function. The result is the chaos we now see.

Local commentators have referred to Representatives Marjorie Taylor Green and Matt Gaetz as the ones who are in reality running the House, while Speaker Mc Carthy is still trying to play by the old rules. He is on thin ice because if he crosses the radical members of his caucus and goes to the Democratic members to get these measures passed, the radicals can vote him out of office. So how scary does Speaker Gaetz or Greene sound? With any luck, the mainstream members will not go there. Remember, the Speaker of the House is third in the line of succession, should the President and VP become unable to serve.

Democrats indicated they would support the Speaker if he could bring clean legislation and agree to certain concessions they want to see. The more radical members of the caucus want to encumber the legislation with riders to reinforce their agendas. These riders make the bills impossible to pass as the House and Senate legislation has to agree. So far, even routine bills such as those that pay for the military services and the Farm Bill, usually an easy bipartisan measure, have not gotten passed.

Meanwhile, over in the Senate, two Republican Senators are trying to flex their tiny muscles–and brains- by placing holds on important functions.

Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama continues to hold up promotions for the military. The Senate approved a few military department heads this week, but that is a far cry from the hundreds of promotions still in the pipeline and needing action. Jumping on the bandwagon is another MAGA guy, Senator JD Vance of Ohio, who is now holding up appointments of new Federal prosecutors to the Justice Department, because he can. Minority leader Mitch McConnell no longer can control his caucus/ He has been ill recently and suffered injuries from a fall, so his usually strong leadership powers have been diminished.

If Democratic Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, recently indicted for corruption and misuse of his office, were to step down, the tenuous balance in the Senate would change to 50/50 until his replacement was in place. The replacement would also be a Democrat since the Governor in NJ is a Democrat. (However, he is the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has had to step down from that powerful position. The evidence presented by the Justice Department seems damning, but innocent until proven guilty, as is said.) Recent reports noted that Senator Joe Manchin, who is likely to lose if he runs as a Democrat in the MAGA state of West Virginia, has not decided whether to run in 2024. Some say he might become an Independent if he runs. Others have encouraged him to join the new "No Labels" party and run on a ticket with former Republican Governor Larry Hogan from MD.(Hogan has not committed to such a ticket.) The party states it might not even form a slate and will wait until the Spring of 2024 to decide. In the meantime, the group is trying to qualify for the ballot in several states now and, ultimately, all of them. If this group runs a slate in 2024, pundits consider they will draw Independent voters from President Biden and hurt his chances of winning.

Other predictions consider the Senate will flip to Republican in 2024, simply because the numbers of races favor them, while the House is likely to become Democratic again. So, either way, there will be a divided government. Polls indicate voters do not favor President Biden to win, but he continues to demonstrate the quiet competency of his administration in multiple areas. He plans to join members of the United Auto Workers on the picket lines this week. The election is just over 13 months away.

Early state election voting has already started in the purple state of Virginia. I am waiting to see if Governor Youngkin's win was a fluke a few years ago, or if he has changed the state. He is supporting a 15-week abortion ban in Virginia, which will reduce the 24-week limit now in place. The state limits him to one term, so this election could be a referendum on the campaigns he promoted, such as parent control of schools, book-banning, and regulations against trans and LBGTQ students. The Virginia legislature is divided, but narrowly so, and could easily be tipped to the right or the left. I haven't heard about this off-year election being called a bell weather yet, but I think it is important to watch. Some say Fox founder Rupert Murdoch, would like Youngkin to run for President. Since he is a multi-millionaire, he could easily self-fund a campaign if he wished. He may also be waiting until the next election in 2028. He likes to come across as a moderate, but the policies he put in place, and the people he appointed are anything but moderate. Consider his plan to have a hotline where parents could anonymously complain to his office about their schools, or the health department policy director he appointed who was insensitive to racial issues. According to NPR, they quietly shut the tip line down after some time.

I will watch the House this week, as will many Americans. Certainly, I hope that Speaker McCarthy can get wiser heads in his party to step up, but I will make no predictions in this area. A shutdown would be detrimental to both Federal employees and the economy, so I hope it doesn't happen. Those who promote such actions are short-sighted, self-serving, and violate their oaths to work for the best interests of the country.

So, Til next week- Peace and hope!