The World Waits & Watches

 

This weekend has seen remarkable happenings in the country of Russia. The autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin, was challenged by the leader of one of his own private armies who marched his forces and armor into the Russian countryside headed for Moscow. As the armored lines moved onward, reports say they shot down Russian planes and helicopters. This soldier, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of a mercenary army called the Wagner Group, has been the attack dog for Putin in countries across Africa and the Middle East. His forces, often comprising convicted criminals on partial release, were known for their brutality and ferociousness in battle. He has been named as a war criminal and sanctioned by the US for his work in creating the Russian “bot farms” that attacked American politics in 2016.

Prigozhin had called for the Russian Generals in charge of the war in Ukraine to be dismissed as he claimed his troops were not receiving adequate battle supplies, such as bullets and armor. When his demands were unmet, he led some 25,000 troops away from the Ukraine battle lines into the Russian military staging grounds and then onward on the road to the nation’s capital, Moscow. He then went on social media and claimed the excuses for the war were untrue and the generals were incompetent.

President Putin went on national TV and called his former friend a traitor and his invasion traitorous. Then, sometime later, the government press office announced that Prizoghin would step down, go into exile in Belarus and some of his forces would be absorbed into the Russian forces. They made no statement about the status of the accused generals, thought by many to be corrupt. Other leaders, in capitals across the world, wondered about this announcement.

These brash actions made Putin look weak and indecisive and undermined the war effort in Ukraine. Many pundits claim he signed his death warrant as Putin strikes when least expected. Over the years, his enemies, at least the ones not yet in jail, have had the bad habits of falling out of hotel windows, dying of sudden poisonings, or being shot in broad daylight on a random street. Many applied the saying, “If you are going to strike at the king, you must kill him because he will strike back if still alive,’

Left unanswered is what will become of the Wagner forces now taking millions of dollars of gold and blood diamonds out of countries in Africa, where local leaders hired them as their strongmen. Currently, these troops are in the Central African Republic, Mali, and parts of Libya and Sudan. Although described as a private army, the leaders shared their illegal gains with many Russian oligarchs and President Putin, and the conscripts worked with Putin’s permission.

What will happen next? President Putin has not been seen since he made his television announcement. The troops retreated in their countryside advance; Prizoghin has not been seen or heard from since they announced his exile. His once-active Telegram account has been silent. What will his role be in Belarus? Russia had been trying to convince that country to send troops into Ukraine, without success. Will its army now become engaged under the thumb of Prizoghin?

Although, along with many Russian oligarchs, he is a billionaire, he may not have a safe haven any longer but may surprise us all and someday, like a bad penny, turn up again. The world does not need ruthless warriors such as he is, especially those who seem to have no sense of morality.

How will this matter affect the progress of the war in Ukraine? With the removal of these fighting forces, the Russian front lines will be unmanned. Although, despite this turmoil, Russian rockets were launched toward Kyiv last evening. Can Ukraine prepare its summer offensive more rapidly? Could this confusion allow the Ukrainians to make advances in the current lines of battle?

Can the apparent “cracks in “Putin’s façade” change the trajectory of the war? Could his actions become unstable and allow the use of the nuclear option? Already described by many as paranoid and trusting few, will he strike out against his enemies, real and perceived? Could the population of Russia now be subjected to more restrictions and allowed less access to international news outlets and the Internet? Will his forces destroy the occupied Ukrainian nuclear power plant and release radioactivity across the area? Since Russian troops were thought to breach a major dam that flooded thousands of acres downstream, displacing many hundreds of villagers, many also considered this attack against civilians yet another war crime.

President Biden has been at Camp David this weekend and has made no public statements about these events. His administration commented carefully, not wanting to be accused of having any players in this internal power struggle. President Zelensky of Ukraine spoke to the Russian troops, asking them if they knew why they were at war, and encouraged them to lay down their arms. (Many have spoken of the forces as demoralized and ill-prepared for battle, so this message might speak to them.)

So tonight, as I write on Sunday evening, we do not know what might happen next. We hold our collective breath, sit, and wait to see what will be. There are lots of questions, but no suitable answers, yet.

That’s all for tonight.

“Til next week-Peace!