Crystal Balls & Soothsayers Needed

Right now, I assert that anyone who says that they can tell you the results of the election on November 8th is wrong. Early in the summer, the pundits convinced the Republicans that they had a red tide heading toward November. Then the Dobbs decision was announced, voters in Kansas spoke out in favor of abortion and a blue wave was predicted. Democrats sounded hopeful. Now polls are swinging toward Republicans in some areas.

Can we trust the polls? In 2020, President Biden won the election, the total popular vote count, and the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton won the total popular vote in 2016 but lost the Electoral College and the election. In both cases, the predicted vote counts for Democrats were less in certain states than the actual votes cast for the Democratic candidate. Trump voters were told to not speak with pollsters in some areas. The Washington Post tried to understand the disparity and termed the issue, as the shy Trump voter, who felt pressured to not note their vote, but eventually concluded that the huge turnout in 2020 was what skewed the polls, as these numbers were not expected.

Pollster Nate Cohn, writing recently in the New York Times noted that in 2020: “Looking back at our data from September and October 2020, white Democrats were 20 percent likelier to respond to Times/Siena polls than white Republicans. This disparity most likely betrayed a deeper problem: Trump voters, regardless of party, were less likely to respond to our polls.”

Pollsters also wondered if people who could work from home and were more likely to be at higher income levels might have been at home during COVID more often than service workers, so disproportionally could respond to the pollsters.

This year, Cohn believes the polls are reporting more accurately as white Democrats were only 5% more likely to complete the poll than Republicans. In September he reported Democrats were ahead of Republicans by two points on the generic ballot. Now, in October, the polls are moving toward the Republicans, motivated by swing voters who disapprove of President Biden. “Voters overwhelmingly believe American democracy is under threat, but seem remarkably apathetic about that danger, with few calling it the nation’s most pressing problem, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.:

Polls of Latino voters do not support the claims that Democrats are losing that group, as more numbers of Latino voters are staying with the Democrats. Fundamentalists and male voters are favoring Republican candidates, but the majority are staying with the Democratic candidates. Certain Hispanic areas of Florida and south Texas have turned more toward the right as these populations are more naturally conservative.

Recently, I have heard seniors speak about the overwhelming number of spam and sales calls that they are receiving on their cell phones. Many have given up their landlines and rely on their cell phones. With caller ID and carrier spam notifications, they rarely answer calls from unknown callers. This may mean that pollsters are missing an important demographic, that of the senior voter. Senior voters are reliable and consistent voters; many use mail-in ballots. States that are trying to restrict the use of these ballots may also restrain those voices.

Independent voters once thought to be swinging toward the Democrats, seemingly are turning back toward the Republicans. (Some say that many so-called Independents are Republicans who are too embarrassed to say they are in that party!) A poll conducted by Pew in 2018 found that most independents favor one party over the other. Although more independent voters lean Democratic, most Independent men lean Republican. In 2018, when the poll was conducted, 38% of voters described themselves as Independents, 31% as Democrats, and 26% as Republicans. Anecdotally, I have heard members from immigrant communities who come from undemocratic countries that others often advise them to register as Independents when they get their citizenship, so their registration does not tie them to a party that may come in and out of power.

Now, as election day draws closer, the economy is looming larger as a problematic issue, since gas prices are ticking up again; most likely because of the actions of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC-which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia as members). Neither nation seemed ready to do any favors for Americans. Since we are supporting Ukraine against Russia, its’ position is understandable. Saudi Arabia, however, is another story; the visit of President Biden recently was supposed to tighten relations between the two countries, even as the U.S. continues to press the government of Mohammed Bin Salman Al Saud (MBS) on other issues such as the death of Washington Post reporter, Jamal Khashoggi, and rights for women.

Other causes for inflation included the reality that the cost of rent increased significantly once the government released COVID-imposed rent freezes. Global food costs rose because of the inability of farmers in both Ukraine and Russia to ship their agricultural products, drought in the U.S., and global supply chain delays. I know each week as I grocery shop, prices are escalating. Paper products, lumber costs, and repair costs are also rising, so the consumer feels the squeeze. Of course, the low unemployment rates also contributed to inflation as the labor shortages increased payroll amounts. When the Federal Reserve, worried about inflation, raised interest rates to slow down the economy, housing costs soared and the housing market slowed down.

President Biden, despite passing legendary bills for infrastructure and inflation improvement, reducing student loan costs, and adding broadband and chip bills, is still taking the hit for the economy and gas prices, even though these are not his doing. Will the students, who got debt relief, the African Americans who wanted a representative on the Supreme Court and in the Cabinet, and other minorities who are now seen as spokespersons for the administration make a difference for their advocates? Democrats still need to speak up for abortion access, rights for minorities, and preserving our democracy along with showing an understanding for those who are hurt by rising prices. Former President Obama has gotten out on the campaign trail for selected candidates and hopefully will make a difference in close races. Let’s face it, despite speaking out on important issues, Biden still comes across as older than his stated age and his continued insistence that he will run in 2024 prohibits others from creating a campaign committee. With any luck, the continued legal troubles for the former president will prohibit him from running again.

For me, not only is the balance of power under threat if Kevin McCarthy takes over in the House as Majority Leader but our democratic values are threatened. Republicans have vowed to call Medicare and Social Security for five-year renewals, threatened to hold the debt ceiling hostage to future legislation, and perhaps refuse to fund any more weapons for Ukraine. Yes, the Putin wing of the Republican Party is alive and well. The Orban conference contingency still has its advocates. The nascent fascism seen in this party is becoming more overt now, as are the white supremacy and anti-Semitic supporters. Even as the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers are indicted and under trial for their activities on January 6^th, others are carrying their banners in and out of Congress. Even here, in Maryland, a group of Unite the Right members recently held a rally. The right-wing Republican candidate for governor Dan Cox, called a QAnon nut job by the current governor, who was scheduled to attend the rally, pulled out at the last moment when the public learned of it. He was at the Stop the Steal Rally on January 6^th.

In Frederick County, the Republican candidate for County Executive is running a highly negative and misleading campaign against his opponent, Jessica Fitzwater. He has sponsored bills to ban and criminalize abortions, allow for no exceptions, and restrict contraceptives and intrauterine devices. He has called for defunding Planned Parenthood, which provides many healthcare services to women. He works for one of the most conservative members of congress and has proudly worked for and stood with the former president. I agree with those who claim that he is too extreme for Frederick County. He is trying to spread fear, claiming that Montgomery County crime and density (meaning people of color) might come north to Frederick County.

As a supporter of Jessica Fitzwater, I know she will be a firm voice for Frederick County, its’ families, businesses, and children. She has spoken in favor of the following issues:

As a teacher, she knows a county grows when its’ schools are strong. An educated populace supports local businesses by providing a skilled workforce. Leaving no one behind means that both our youngest and oldest residents will have their needs met. Concentrating most development in urban centers means she will be a good steward of our resources and protect our green spaces. I hope you will give Jessica your vote.

On the state level-please support all the Democratic candidates on the top of the ballot, Wes Moore and Aruna Miller for Governor and Lt. Governor, Anthony Brown for Attorney General, and Brooke Lierman for Comptroller. Each has had a career of public service with exceptional dedication to their duties.

Maryland Democrats outnumber Republicans, 55% to 31% according to Pew research. However, the distribution of party voters is skewed with the counties with the highest populations showing mostly Democratic strongholds, and the more rural counties at the far west and north, as well as the Eastern shore running more Republican. Therefore, the only Republican Congressman is from District 1, which includes the Eastern Shore. Congressman Trone in the redistricted area 6, now has more of Western MD in his district and less of Montgomery County than he had before, which makes his race tougher this year. His opponent is anti-abortion and has called for tattooing HIV-positive adults and children!

So if Democrats come out to vote in the numbers they did in 2020, we can win these state and county races and those across the country. Hopefully, the Democratic men and women who stood with the MAGA crowd will see the chaos that was created by the actions of the former president and come back to the side of those who wish to preserve this democracy. In my dreams, they will not give in to the fear-mongering, race-baiting and immigrant caravans that are again being promoted.

Election Day is November 8^th. Early voting starts Thursday of this week, so make a plan to vote.

‘Til next week-Peace!