The Voters in Kansas Speak Out!

 

This past week, the voters in Kansas had an opportunity to change their constitution, which allowed for abortions up to 22 weeks gestation and permit the legislature to enact stricter laws regarding abortion access. Groups spent millions of dollars on both sides of this battle to encourage the voters to answer yes, (to permit a constitutional change) or no, to leave things as they are. Originally, the legislature scheduled the vote for August at the time of a Republican Primary vote for the mid-term elections; some say hoping Democrats and Independents, who were likely to stay home during the Republican contests, would not pay attention. At the time they set this vote, in 2021, the Supreme Court had not ruled on Roe in the Dobbs’ case and the expectations that it would slip in under the radar were quite good. Post Dobbs, the equations all changed.

By the time they counted all the votes, deep red-state Kansas voted to keep the constitution without changes. The turnout was about 53% of the voters, which is the percentage usually seen in general elections. The voters defeated the ballot measure with about 60% of the voters voting to keep the rights as described in the Constitution. While the women in the suburbs of the larger cities in Kansas weighed in heavily on the “no” side, support was noted across the state and included independents who would usually not vote at all because they can only make their wishes known on issues and cannot vote for partisan candidates in a closed primary and a significant number of Republicans. The “no” side was successful, despite a misleading text message sent out by a Republican entity the day before the primary that claimed a “yes” vote would keep abortions available. The wording of the measure confused many voters; some felt that it was deliberately unclear.

During the 2020 election, 56.1% of the voters supported DJT for president, with only 41.5% voting for Biden, so there had to be a significant number of Republicans who did not vote “yes” in this election. What does this mean for the mid-term elections in November? Pundits seem to think that the abortion issue is motivating Democrats, but they do not yet know how to quantify this motivation. It certainly would be easier to predict if there were many states with similar measures, but there are not. Michigan also has a question on abortion on the ballot in November, but they did this because of a state-wide petition, so it remains to be determined whether voters will address this in November.

This week, also, Indiana passed a strict anti-abortion measure, with only a few exceptions such as the health of the mother, allowed. Other exceptions included rape, incest, and lethal fetal abnormality. The legislature also determined that life begins at conception. Immediately after the decision, several large businesses stated that this measure would negatively impact their workforce and suggested that the corporations would consider moves to help their employees get medical care. Eli Lilly, a major pharmaceutical firm, stated that instead of expanding its business in-state that it would look to expand other facilities elsewhere.

State abortion laws in about half the country have already changed because of the Dobbs’ decision; some states had trigger laws ready to go if Roe was overturned. Other states returned to distant regulations that were on the books a century or more ago and were made dormant when Roe went into effect. Eight states banned abortions the day the Court announced the decision, while others are phasing in bans. Wide areas of the Midwest and South now have no contiguous states that allow abortion access. States in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, the Upper Midwest, and the West Coast, plus Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico still provide these necessary services. (I show a map in the link above.)

Will Democrats still be as motivated in November as they have been in Kansas in August? The polls are not yet definitive, but Nate Silver, speaking on ABC in July, noted that after the court decision, the generic ballot favors Democrats more than Republicans and has shown a shift, despite the tendency for mid-terms to go against the party of the President. Other polls have noted that Democrats are more motivated after the decisions of the court, not only on abortion, but also on the environment, religion, and guns that have gone against the mainstream. While gas prices were high in June, now in August they have come down significantly and are still decreasing. Mortgage rates are also trending down, although food prices remain high. The recent positive job numbers and low unemployment figures favor Democrats, even as inflation is high.

The President has had some significant wins in Congress as well. The CHIPS measure is now law and will help semiconductor supplies once made on-shore. The PACT bill to assist veterans with burn pit complications is now law despite Republican opposition. Senator Sinema joined Senator Manchin and other Democrats to get the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) passed under reconciliation, so it did not need to be subjected to a filibuster. Vice-President Harris cast the 51^st vote to break the 50-50 tie in the Senate. No Republicans voted for this Bill which extends ACA subsidies, allows negotiations for some drug prices, creates climate control supports such as subsidies for electric cars, and much more. It would have capped the price of insulin at 35 dollars for those with insurance, but that did not get through; it was only allowed for those on Medicare. The Parliamentarian negated a few other provisions as not meeting the rules of reconciliation. But even as the Republicans grumble, they know that passing the IRA is one vast deal and a big plus for the President’s agenda that they cannot deny. The measure will go to the House for a final vote and then on to the President for his signature. YEAH!

According to Heather Cox Richardson: heathercoxrichardson@substack.com

“The measure devotes more than $300 billion to addressing climate change and energy reform, the largest federal investment in climate change in U.S. history. It will make it easier and cheaper to get electric cars and to heat and cool homes without fossil fuels—Environmental Protection Agency administrator Michael Regan says families will save an average of $500 a year on energy costs—while also creating new jobs in these fields. It extends for three years the subsidies for healthcare under the Affordable Care Act that Congress originally passed during the pandemic. It will invest about $300 billion toward reducing the deficit.”

The President had hoped to get on the road but has been waylaid with Covid over the last two weeks. He received Paxlovid, but had a rebound case of Covid and has finally tested negative this weekend. But even, while isolating, he approved the CIA drone strike on the long-time leader of Al-Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was living openly in Kabul, Afghanistan, presumably under the permission of the Taliban. An Egyptian, he had been with Osama bin Laden since the early days and served him as a strategist and physician. The government considered him to have been part of the planning of U.S. embassy bombings in Africa, the bombing of the USS Cole, and the devastation of 911. After the death of bin Laden, he assumed the leadership of the terrorist organization. And, although he slowed down in recent years, he released diatribes against the U.S. as recently as a few weeks ago, encouraging followers to take action.

Well, in other news, the crazies won the Republican primaries in Arizona. I do not know what has happened to that state. Ever since the state was called for Joe Biden in the 2020 election, it seems as if the Republicans there have lost their collective minds!

Brief notes:

In other election news, reports that Hispanic voters were deserting Democrats are shown by the numbers of Hispanics who left the Catholic Church and had become fundamentalist or evangelical Christians. A leading cleric indicates Hispanics are generally conservative on many issues, including abortion, but support immigration reforms and family values. He notes the majority are most likely still Democrats, although there has been some attrition.

Two Republicans in Washington state who voted to impeach DJT won their primaries; one did not. Another Congressman in California won his primary; several others, such as Adam Kinzinger, who is on the January 6^th committee, decided to retire.

The Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) met in Texas for their periodic convention and invited the autocratic leader of Hungary, Viktor Orban, to speak. He gave an anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-same-sex marriage type of speech in which he also declared that America is a Christian nation. The crowd cheered wildly and gave him a standing ovation. Other would-be autocrats also spoke. Senator Scott of Florida, who used to be considered mainstream but probably wants to be president someday, also spoke. He has proposed doing away with Medicare. The Senator, the richest person in the Senate, made his millions initially with the HCA healthcare corporation. According to the Congressional Integrity Organization, Scott was involved in the largest healthcare fraud ever recorded (about $17 Billion) and was forced off the board. His family is still involved in the healthcare industry, and he wants to do away with Medicare?

In Montgomery County, the count goes on, and on and on! In the County Executive race incumbent, Marc Elrich, has declared victory. His opponent in the Democratic primary, David Blair, stated that he will ask for a recount. As of Saturday evening, Elrich led by 42 votes with 34 votes remaining. (Nine of these votes will be counted and they will discard 25 as arriving too late, according to election officials.) In 2018, Elrich beat Blair by 77 votes. Blair and allies spent millions against Elrich in each contest, while Elrich accepted public financing. The election was on July 19^th but over 80,000 ballots were mailed in and could not be counted when first received, thanks to Governor Hogan’s refusal to allow early counting. Really bad move, Gov!

“Til next week-Peace!