How Will This End?

The news from Ukraine is not good. As I write tonight, Russian bombarding continues against urban centers and civilian targets. Soldiers on both sides are suffering casualties as the combatants get closer to each other. Ukrainian opposition forces that destroyed bridges, massed ambushes and fired Javelin missiles have bogged down the miles-long convoy of Russian troops and tanks. The Russian troops in their attacks on cities have not allowed the evacuation of civilians, and in many instances, even fired on travelers in so-called safe evacuation corridors; they cut encircled cities off from all attempts at humanitarian relief. There are reports of children in Mariupol dying from lack of food and water; news reports show bodies left untended in the streets as the residents hunker down in bunkers. There are concerns that Putin did not expect the defensive strength shown by the Ukrainian military and civilian forces, so he chose to destroy the urban centers and starve the populace into submission. So far, he has not completely succeeded and has encountered more opposition than he expected. Many consider his actions outside the laws of decency and even barbaric. There is no one in Russia who can tell him no. The media reported that two members of the spy force, the FSB, were put under house arrest this week but no reasons were given. Attempts to find and kill Zelensky had been reported; he is staying mostly out of sight.

The war is now in its third week; diplomacy has failed. The widened sanctions against Russia have caused some pain, but have not stopped the aggression. Russian troops took the Mayor of Melitopol away with a bag over his head after he refused to surrender as his city was occupied. A maternity hospital and a cancer center were both bombed, as the Russians falsely claimed that troops were using the hospitals as cover. Video footage showing obviously pregnant women running out of the building with visible injuries demonstrated the truth about the hospital. President Zelensky has accused the Russians of war crimes for this and other civilian attacks. He has stayed in his country and rallied his citizens to defend their nation. He also dramatically demanded that the U.S. or NATO maintain a “no-fly” zone over Ukraine to keep the Russian Airplanes on the ground. President Biden has refused, invoking the danger of Americans shooting down Russian planes and widening this into a world war. Some others say that this is the only way to stop Ukrainians from dying and slow down Putin who would respect force. So far, NATO and the U.S. have increased their shipments of defensive weapons and anti-tank missiles. (Do you remember DJT wanted to do Putins’ bidding and get the U.S. out of NATO? Where would we be now had that happened?)

What does the world do when a ruthless dictator does not believe he has to follow the Rule of Law as it applies to International Rules of Diplomacy? A further complication of these situations is that Russia is one of the nine nuclear powers in the world. (The others are: the United States, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel-although Israel does not admit to this power.) According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, these nations have thousands (about 13,000) of these types of weapons. The U.S. and Russia have most of this number, with approximately 5,500 weapons for the U.S. and about 6,300 for Russia. Each country has some of these weapons at the ready, to be launched at a few moments’ notice. The deterrents have always been that the theory of mutual and total destruction would apply should one country launch against the other. The questions countries are asking now concern Putins’ sanity, like-is he really crazy enough to go nuclear? What would he do if they chased him into a corner? Some have said he is trying to reconstruct the former Soviet Union, a country at a time. He seems to care little for public opinion; he seems to be about the most hated man on the planet currently.

Recently Putin has rattled his nuclear saber with talk of using tactical nuclear weapons. These weapons are designed to be used on the battlefield, on a limited basis, and could be fitted onto a missile, then fired into cities. However, even though they are described as tactical, they are still lethal. As described by Scientific American: “A tactical nuclear weapon would produce a fireball, shock waves, and deadly radiation that would cause long-term health damage in survivors. Radioactive fallout would contaminate air, soil, water, and the food supply.”

Scientific American has also described a mushroom cloud in another issue: “A mushroom cloud forms when an explosion creates a very hot bubble of gas. In the case of a nuclear detonation, the bomb emits a blast of x-rays, which ionize and heat the surrounding air; that hot bubble of gas is known as a fireball. The hot air is buoyant, so it quickly rises and expands. The rising cloud creates a powerful updraft which picks up dust, forming the stem of the mushroom cloud.”

[The explosive force does not have to be nuclear to cause a mushroom cloud. The explosion in Beirut, Lebanon in recent years produced a mushroom cloud but was due to nitrate stored at the port.]

Ukraine has already experienced the dangers of radiation as it suffered the meltdown of the Chernobyl nuclear plant; the area around that plant remains contaminated and radioactive. About 45 people died because of the initial explosion and subsequent cancers from exposure. They found thousands of cancers in survivors in the years since the 1986 incident. Currently, Russian troops occupy that closed, but still hot, site, which was under constant monitoring. Crews rotate out frequently to reduce exposure but have been forbidden to leave since the Russians arrived. This weekend, they lost power in the area, raising concerns that the coolers running to keep the spent fuel rods from overheating would fail, but backup generators kicked in. They restored power after a couple of days, giving the nuclear scientists some relief. Nuclear monitoring showed no increased radioactivity after the power loss, so there were reduced, but not fully eased, concerns. Ukraine has 15 nuclear power plants; foreign troops currently occupy two of them, so this issue is an ongoing concern.

In the only use of the atomic bomb in Japan, over 100,000 deaths occurred from the two bombs dropped by the U.S. that were far less powerful than the current hydrogen bombs, which now fill silos and are carried on submarines and planes. Countless others were victims of radiation illnesses, burns, leukemias, and tumors. Once the world realized just how dangerous these weapons were, diplomats tried to restrict their use; however, the U.S. could not hold onto this technology, and spies and scientists worked hard to spread it more widely. It is said that North Korea got the centrifuges to build a bomb from a Pakistani scientist and nuclear power technology from the old Soviet Union. However, according to the Washington Post, many companies and countries helped North Korea over the years through black market sales and other hidden deals. This is an example of another sanctioned nation working around sanctions and an example of an unstable leader having dangerous weapons. With the world’s attention on Ukraine, North Korea has been shooting off missiles over the past week.

The lack of information about the war is isolating the Russian population. Using the word “war” in public can cause one to be jailed, while the state line is that this is a rescue, not an invasion. The propaganda machine is in full force, as the country is told that Ukraine is being rescued from Nazi rule. World War ll is being revisited to showcase the victorious Soviet Union that Putin hopes to restore. Residents of Ukraine who have relatives in Russia are being told that they are not being bombed and civilians are not being targeted when they call their family members with tales of distress. Since the war started, the Internet was controlled and Facebook and Twitter have been limited. Reports in the Washington Post today note that the intimidation of these entities started last year before the Russian elections, when the imprisoned Alexei Navalny commissioned an alternative online suggested slate for the Duma or Congress, be posted online to give voters a choice. The head of Google was threatened with jail if this was not taken down immediately. As the Post reported: “Amid this internal offensive, Putin also moved to bring foreign technology companies to heel. Moscow deployed new devices that let it degrade or even block Russians’ access to Facebook and Twitter, imposed fines totaling $120 million on firms accused of defying Kremlin censors, and ordered 13 of the world’s largest technology companies to keep employees in Russia and thus exposed to potential arrest or other punishment for their employers’ actions — a measure that U.S. executives refer to as the “hostage law.”

This should be a sober reminder to those Republican and FOX devotees who have been “rootin’ for Putin”; he is a dictator who allows no dissent. Hang onto Democracy, please everyone. If he wins in Ukraine, I doubt he will stop there. Others expressed the fears of Moldova that already has Russian troops, supposedly peacekeepers, stationed in their country. It is a small country that could easily be overrun, yet it is taking in refugees.

Please hope that the cease-fire talks supposedly scheduled for tomorrow produce something constructive. The last talks were a joke as Putin demanded that Ukraine surrender, agree to occupation, and demilitarize. Oh, and promise to never try to join NATO. Well, each of those was a non-starter, so things can only get better, right? The problem with negotiations with Putin is that he does not keep his word, so how can one know what to expect?

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I am concerned that the sizeable crowds of people crammed into buses and onto trains in their escapes from the war and not wearing masks will cause an uptick in COVID cases in Europe. Over 2.5 million people, mostly women and children, have left the war zones and scattered over borders into nearby countries and across Europe. Health authorities echoed these fears in a New York Times article today that noted only one-third of Ukrainians were vaccinated and even mentioned an increasing polio outbreak that came from Tajikistan. Otherwise, in America, mask mandates are coming down, although they remain in place for flights and other transportation.

COVID Stats-NY Times:

U.S. Totals: Total Cases: 79,418,131. New Cases: 34,232.

                      Total Deaths: 966,361. New Deaths: 1291.

Maryland Totals: Total Cases: 1,006,901. New Cases: 300.

                               Total Deaths: 14,261. New Deaths: 11.

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Well, this week a group of truckers, following their Canadian friends, I guess, have been circling the Washington Beltway protesting-well, no one is sure what they are protesting, but they are going around in circles. I am glad they did not disrupt traffic too much, although they slowed it down. They say they are protesting COVID mandates-a bit late, since most have been relaxed, but they have a right to protest. But never one to waste a photo-op, Senator Ted Cruz jumped in the cab of a truck and joined the circling beltway travelers. Of course, it is not new to see Cruz going around in circles!

However, Cruz called mandates immoral when he had his minute at the mike-no, Senator, mandates are not immoral, they saved lives. What is immoral is what Russia is doing to Ukraine.

‘Til next week, hope for peace.