Monday, December 13, 2021

Some Thoughts on Redistricting, Elections & More


The Department of Justice (DOJ) challenged the redistricting plan recently put in place by Texas Republicans, claiming that it is not fair to the minorities who have mainly been responsible for the population growth in that state. This growth was mostly responsible for the state’s two newly allocated seats for representatives. According to the lawsuit, Texas “failed to draw a seat encompassing the growing Latino electorate in Harris County” and “excised minority communities from the core of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.” The lawsuit further claims that Latino communities and districts were eliminated through exclusion or manipulation from seats at the State House. This new map also targeted current Congressional representatives and redrew the map in Houston, which had two African American reps. (Sheila Jackson-Lee and Al Green) into the same district, so only one could be elected. African Americans make up about 12% of the state’s population and currently African Americans hold five Congressional seats in the Texas delegation.

According to recent census data published in the Texas Tribune, “Texans of color accounted for 95% of the state’s population growth. The 2020 census puts the state’s population at 29,145,505 — a 16% jump from 25.1 million in 2010. Hispanic Texans handled half of that increase. Non-Hispanic white Texans now make up just 39.8% of the state’s population — down from 45% in 2010. Meanwhile, the share of Hispanic Texans has grown to 39.3%.”

Attorney-General Garland further noted that if the Voting Rights Act provisions for pre-clearance were still in effect, that Texas could not have taken these steps without DOJ approval. Pre-clearance was taken out of the Voting Rights Bill in the Supreme Court Shelby County vs. Holder decision of 2013. Many, including myself, consider this single move one of the worst decisions of the Roberts Court; indeed, the Chief Justice himself wrote the opinion. Garland again urged the Senate to pass the Voting Rights legislation already passed by the House, which reinstates the provision struck down by the Court. I’ll mention more about this below.

Other states are also creating new district maps as required by changes in the census. California and Florida are still in the preliminary stages in their new maps, but those two states alone handle 80 legislative seats. According to 538, some changes can favor Democrats, but Republicans hold most of the statehouses where the decisions take place. They further note that districts in Ohio and North Carolina, drawn by Republicans, are so biased that they are likely to be challenged by the courts. Virginia could not agree on the new district lines, so the court appointed special masters who redrew the districts there. This has caused some current Congressional representatives (Abigail Spanberger and Elaine Luria) to no longer live in their newly drawn district, so they are scrambling to learn their new constituents. Both Democrats are now considered more vulnerable now that Republican Glenn Youngkin won the Governor’s race, although Spanberger is considered to have the safer seat. Republicans have already announced that they will target these three Democratic women who were elected in the blue wave of 2018; the third one is Jennifer Wexler, who represents a district where Youngkin did better than expected. So, as we have seen, Virginia remains a purple state even though President Biden won there handily, Youngkin drew many of the suburban voters back into the Republican tallies.

Maryland is, however, a different story. 538 describes the current redistricting here. Republican Governor Hogan created a commission that developed a map that was redone by the Legislature in a recent special session. The Governor vetoed that redrawn map. The Democrats, who control both houses in the State Assembly, overrode his veto and so the newly drawn districts became law. Maryland is a blue state, but it is blue in the core urban cities and counties and red in the Western and eastern districts. Previous redistricting drew condemnation for its District 3 Congressional map which snaked around several counties and crossed rivers traditionally thought of as natural boundaries. District 3 still seems gerrymandered, but maybe less so than before. The 6th District in Western Maryland, long a Republican stronghold, was diluted with parts of more Democratic Montgomery County and now is represented by a Democrat.

The lone Republican in the Maryland Congressional corps is Andy Harris in the 1st District, which covers the eastern shore and parts of northern Maryland. That District has been changed to include more areas with Democratic voters and make his reelection more challenging. Harris, an anesthesiologist, and physician is an outlier in the delegation. He is a MAGA supporter, Biden election denier, and abortion foe, whose most recent claim to fame occurred when he tried to bring a gun onto the House floor. A suit has been filed against him for improperly prescribing an animal medicine Ivermectin for human patients; this use was promoted by many conspiracy enthusiasts and vaccine deniers. Given his history, it remains surprising that Harris actually gave the COVID vaccine to patients. Is it fair to make his district more Democratic? Probably not, but that is the game of politics.

I am a Democrat and I understand partisan redistricting and the concept-if they do it, we must do so when we can have the advantage. I get it. But I firmly believe that there is a better way to accomplish this. Some states already have non-partisan commissions established to draw districts. According to Ballotpedia, fourteen states already have commissions to draw their state redistricting maps and eight states have them for the Congressional maps. Seven of these are non-politician commissions; New Jersey is not. If a truly non-partisan commission is established, then everyone will probably be somewhat unsatisfied because each will see disappointments, but it will not disenfranchise voters as now. There are rules to follow–each Congressional District must have about the same number of constituents–give or take a few, so that helps set up the parameters.

The Brennan Center is urging that the voting rights legislation be passed for many reasons and the redistricting provisions are core to this belief. It recently stated the following:

“At the core of the bill’s redistricting reforms is a robust statutory ban on partisan gerrymandering in the drawing of congressional maps that could be brought in federal court in Washington, D.C.. This ban would fill the gaping hole left in 2019 when the Supreme Court held that federal courts had no power to decide partisan gerrymandering claims asserted under the U.S. Constitution, leaving the policing of gerrymandering instead to Congress and the states. 

A ban on partisan gerrymandering is a crucial protection for communities of color. Whether gerrymanderers are Democrats or Republicans, the targeting of communities of color is often the key to creating a map that favors one party over the other. This cycle, map drawers in Texas and other southern states are already defending racially discriminatory maps on the basis that the maps were drawn on a supposedly “color-blind” basis and target Democrats rather than Black, Latino, and Asian voters — even though map drawers are fully aware that their maps invariably dilute the power of communities of color.”

 

I fully agree with that assessment and hope to see this legislation, already passed by the House, enacted by the Senate. To me, this and the companion bill are the two most vital pieces of legislation before this Congress. It is the last best chance we have to save free and fair elections in this country. Republicans are decimating election boards, threatening state vote counting officials, and putting partisans in place of respected election judges across the country. An article in the NY Times describes how partisans are running for so-called minor positions on election boards and school boards in an attempt to be in position for the next elections, often catching Democrats off-guard. The article describes some members who were at the January 6th events, returning home ready to try to take over. They truly fear free elections and continue to spread the MAGA lies, which endanger us all.

 

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Covid is still with us as the new variant Omicron is now identified in 25 states, but cases are described as mild. Delta remains the dominant variant and is still causing over 1000 deaths per day. Vaccinations have increased; perhaps people realize that this is not going away quickly. As long as there are unvaccinated people around who can spread the virus, it will remain among us. Maryland’s governor reported that 90% of Marylanders have received at least one vaccine so far. Maryland could not report any data for the past week as the computer system apparently was compromised in some manner – whether it was a hack or a ransom demand is not known.

 

COVID Totals NY Times:

 

Total US Cases: 49,880,186. New Cases:119,288. Total Deaths: 795,921. New Deaths:1,298.

 

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Those of you who watch MSNBC TV know that long-time network newsman Brian Williams stepped down from his anchor position at the 11th Hour evening program. He will be missed by many, including myself. I would like for you to hear his parting remarks, which I repeat below.

In his on-air goodbye, Williams warned against extremism in the country.

“My biggest worry is for my country,” Williams said. “I’m not a liberal or a conservative. I’m an institutionalist. I believe in this place. And in my love of my country, I yield to no one, but the darkness on the edge of town has spread to roads and highways and neighborhoods.”  

“It’s now at the local bar, and the bowling alley, at the school board, in the grocery store.”

“Grown men and women who swore an oath to our constitution, elected by our constituents, possessing the kinds of college degrees I can only dream of have decided to join the mob and become something they are not, hoping we somehow forget who they were,”

Williams continued. “They’ve decided to burn it all down with us inside. That should scare you to no end as much as it scares an aging volunteer fireman.”

As Lawrence O’Donnell might say–Brian Williams gets the last word.

“Til next week–Peace!

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