November came in with cold weather and high winds and
brought the first frosts to our area. The Democrats certainly felt those frosty
breezes as they watched the election returns come in on Tuesday evening.
The "off-off-year" governors' races in Virginia
and New Jersey were certainly not good news for Democrats. Republican Glenn
Youngkin beat Democrat Terry McAuliffe by two percentage points with a 66,119-point
difference. In New Jersey, the Democratic incumbent Phil Murphy beat challenger
Jack Ciattarelli by 2.6 percentage points or about 60,000 votes. Ciattarelli
has not yet conceded; Eric Trump claimed fraud even though there was no
evidence to say so. Polls had shown Murphy ahead by as much as 8 points shortly
before the election. There has been no explanation for the differences. The
Virginia polls showed Youngkin pulling ahead just before election day, so were
more accurate. Preliminary analyses for both states showed that rural voters
and independents went for the Republican candidates while turnout for Democrats
and younger voters was not as robust as it might have been. Does that mean
Democrats were unenthusiastic or lazy and Republicans were eager to get back in
charge? As it is early days, I do not believe that answer is clear cut.
538
seemed to feel that the shift in Virginia was among suburban non-college-educated
voters and voters who were concerned about the economy and education. Disapproval
of President Biden also drove some voters, although those who approved of the job
he was doing also voted for McAuliffe overwhelmingly. Strangely, many voters who
supported abortion rights also voted for Youngkin, even though he had announced
he opposed such rights. The Democrats did not make these differences clear enough;
it seems. Youngkin also kept the rural MAGA base, and, while he did not disavow
the support of the former president, he did not campaign with him; he did, however,
voice many of the same coded messages and race-baiting. In Virginia,
Republicans swept all the higher offices and took control of the Virginia
House, although Democrats hung on to keep the Senate.
Although many voters mentioned the economy, gains
made by the Biden administration do not appear to have trickled down to the
voters' minds. Recent unemployment is at 4.6, one of the lowest rates since
before the pandemic, while they claim to have created over five million jobs.
Wages are up 5.9% but gas prices have also risen, so maybe that increase is not
realized by workers. Fears of inflation remain, supply chain concerns have not
yet been resolved, so these are difficult fixes and not issues that can be
discussed by a smart quip despite what politicians running for office might
say. High taxes were prominent Republican issues in both states.
Republicans also did better than expected in local and
state races in New Jersey. What does this mean for 2024? Traditionally, the
party in power loses seats in the off-year races between presidential years.
The website for 538 discusses next year's elections here:
They conclude with this
statement:
"Nothing
about 2022 is written in stone, and there's no guarantee that a red-wave
election will come to fruition. But the historical expectation with a
Democratic president has always been that Republicans would have a good
election cycle, and the evidence for that is mounting. The Republican overperformance
in the 2021 elections is simply a reminder of how bad things could get for
Democrats."
So, are the Democrats reading these results and weeping or
are they seeing them as a wake-up call for actions now to change the momentum? It
certainly seems that running against the former president will not be a winning
strategy for Democrats while Republicans have now road-tested their CRT and
school bashing enough to see that they work. I think it might be time
for the Democrats to toot their horns and showcase just how many changes have
already taken place at their urging. Since the House passed the Infrastructure
Bill after many delays this week and, in a compromise, agreed to vote on the
Build Back Better proposal by November 15th, there is potential for
more positive change. No one knows exactly what will happen in the Senate with
this bill, but the anticipation for approval is high. But any vote which
depends upon the way the winds are blowing (as it so often seems with Senators
Manchin and Sinema) cannot be considered a slam dunk. I will keep my fingers
crossed, virtually, that this bill will become reality. Would I place money on
this passage by the 15th, were I a betting person? The simple answer
is no.
If either bill had passed earlier, would that have helped
the Democratic Governors in Virginia and New Jersey? The pundits say no, but I
cannot help but think that might have helped the Presidents' approval ratings,
which would then have given the campaigns a boost. Who really knows?
The Infrastructure Bill passed in the Senate with a bipartisan
vote that included 19 Republican Senators. In the House, six progressive
Democrats (known as the Squad) voted against it, claiming that they felt it was
not strong enough environmentally. But, Despite Minority Leader McCarthys' opposition,
thirteen House Republicans
also supported it and cast their votes in favor. (Speaker Pelosi must have had
these votes quietly in her pocket, so she was certain of the outcome!) Eight
Republicans who were members of the Problem Solvers Caucus voted for it because
they said these were programs needed by their states; they were joined by five
others (including the oldest House member, Representative Young of Alaska) who also
felt the needs of their states demanded this legislation. Young also noted that
previously Infrastructure Bills would have had overwhelming support. So,
Americans across the country can look forward to improved highways and bridges,
repairs to aging water and sewer lines, increased rural broadband, and improved
options for electric vehicles and school buses, to mention a few items on the
1.2 trillion-dollar lists. Hopefully, some of these are shovel-ready and can
get going. In the real world, that should improve outlooks for Democrats, but
probably we will see Republicans again take credit for improvements that they
did not vote for!
Does this mean that the wall of partisanship
is crumbling? I really doubt it, but I think maybe a crack or two might be formed
as some members think back to why they ran for office early in their careers
and bring to mind their past speeches about service to their constituents.
Maybe, at one point, they ran for Congress to really make a difference, not
just be in opposition?
After the votes, many in their own party castigated these
Republicans, including outlier Representative Marjorie Taylor-Greene who
accused them of "selling out to Joe Biden's communist takeover of America."
She just cannot understand democracy, it seems.
Other important legislation remains to be addressed, as
does the filibuster.
While the filibuster has been around for over 100 years, in recent years, the
use has been extreme and it prevented the Senate from functioning as an
effective legislative body. It seems as if the only way that immigration reform
and voting measures will get passed in the Senate is if they can set aside the filibuster
momentarily to allow passage on a vote of a simple majority. Senator Manchin
proposed a modified voting rights bill and claimed he could get bipartisan approval,
but he could not. Again, this week, the John Lewis Voting Rights measure failed
cloture and so did not even reach the floor for a discussion of its merits;
Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was the only Republican vote in favor.
President Biden attended the G20, met the Pope, and spoke
at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow, Scotland,
so he had a busy few days recently. Small island nations spoke of the dangers
they are facing with rising seas and increasingly severe storms that threaten
their very existence. Over 100,000 young people marched in Glasgow claiming
that world leaders are not taking this issue seriously enough and are not
changing behaviors rapidly enough to slow down the effects of rising atmospheric
carbon and temperatures. They demanded that stronger measures be agreed upon by
world leaders. The question remains-how close to the tipping point will we go
before world behaviors change? I so do not have the answer to that query.
*******************************************************************************
Children in the US received the modified Pfizer Covid
vaccination this week soon after the CDC allowed its use. According to the
government, there are 28 million children in the eligible cohort. But, given all
the issues with this vaccine, these kids also fall into the groups of "Oh
yes, give it now, never, ever for my child, and maybe" by
parental responses, so it may take a while before they vaccinate enough
children to establish a significant number. They announced a second oral drug
this week to treat COVID infections. However, it must be given soon after the
patient is afflicted, which may reduce the use. Maryland vaccination rates
remain steady at 66%; western MD is the current hot spot.
Sadly, the US passed the incredible number of 750,000 known
deaths from COVID, one of the highest numbers in the world for a country–that
number is greater than the entire population of Washington, DC. Accurate
numbers for China, Russia, and India are unknown.
COVID stats NY Times:
US Totals: Total Cases: 46,449,331. Total New Cases:
72,051.
Total
Deaths: 754,051. Total New Deaths: 1,217.
Maryland Totals: Total Cases: 566,313. New Cases: 687.
Total Deaths:
10,974. New Deaths: 11.
*************************************************************************
OSHA finally released the rule to follow President Biden's
workplace mandate requiring COVID vaccination or weekly testing at workplaces
with over 100 employees. It was to start in January, but because of appeals
from Texas (where else?) and some other Republican states to the 5th
Circuit, it has been stayed pending a hearing next week for the government to
show cause for this effect on private businesses. Big corporations are mostly in
favor of the mandate as it makes their workplaces safer if more employees are
vaccinated. There is precedent for federally mandated vaccinations, so
hopefully, the government will prevail.
"Til next week – Peace!
No comments:
Post a Comment
All comments are reviewed prior to posting.