Will the Senate Convict?

 

In 1861, President-elect Lincoln set about on a month-long journey to Washington DC for his inauguration. He left Springfield, Illinois, and traveled on a meandering path through Ohio, New York state and Pennsylvania before coming to Maryland for the last leg of his journey.  As history tells us, there were plots to kill this president by many from the South so the Pinkerton detectives were called in to counter this.  Eventually, the schemers were foiled, the announced routes were changed and Lincoln arrived disguised as a routine traveler.

President Eisenhower was the last president to travel regularly by train, although some campaigns have used short train trips after conventions. (I remember many years ago, when I was an elementary school student - going to the nearby train tracks with my classmates to wave at President Eisenhower as he traveled through my Massachusetts suburb.) President-elect Joe Biden, known for his daily Amtrak travel when he was a Senator with young children at home, also planned to travel to DC for his inauguration; this now has been canceled due to safety concerns that were not detailed.

What has brought our country to this dangerous intersection of reality with truth versus lying demagoguery?  How have many years of seeing those in power just pushing aside the lies and anti-democracy moves by this president brought us to this point?  I think it began with the birtherism movement which was started by the president against then-President Barack Obama, continued by the right-wing commentators and news organizations and not decried by elected Republicans who knew the falsity of these claims. Years of these lies have deafened the general public to actual truth-telling.

The New York Times Magazine today published an article by Timothy Snyder (author of On Tyranny) which explores how we got to this point and how insidious years of unchallenged lies and attacks on the press and media as ‘false news’ have helped get us to this place in time. These lines struck me as particularly telling:

“Post-truth is pre-fascism and Trump has been our post-truth president.  When we give up on truth, we concede power to those with the wealth and charisma to create spectacle in its place. Without agreement about some basic facts, citizens cannot form the basic society that would allow them to defend themselves.”

       As George Santayana said more than 100 years ago: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”   

          My question now is, will Americans remember history?  Will we look at recent events and shrug or we will learn from these past few months? Will we speak up in the future and call out mistruths and distortions of reality?  Will our elected officials have the courage to move away from a seriously flawed leader of either party? Few of us thought that this president would actually promote the carnage mentioned in his inaugural address! The insurrection he incited for months should have been foreseen, we are told.  But, for many Americans, these were actions never anticipated because they were too involved in trying to make their lives work to spend their days in the dark corners of the conspiratorial web. They went out to vote when it was time and accepted the election results because that is what Americans have always done until now.  They expected a smooth transition of power because that has been the American way of democracy – that is until now – until this president was defeated.  He then set out to break our democracy because he chose to disregard the election results and not concede his defeat.  He chose to try to break our democracy to stay in power. 

          Our democracy now appears more fragile than we ever thought, but it appears to be holding on, even though divided too much by partisanship. Washington DC is now closed down and thousands of National Guard troops are on patrol in the Federal zones.  Bridges from Virginia are closed down. The Capitol is enclosed by strategic fencing as are the Mall and White House. Still, authorities expect outsiders to try to cause problems on Inauguration Day.  News reports on Sunday indicate that the FBI is concerned about the loyalty of some of the Guard troops and commanders are attempting to vet the groups currently stationed in DC.  This is certainly unsettling.

         So where do we go from here?  Will we have a safe inauguration?  I surely hope so.  We need to move on from this administration and celebrate the arrival of a new President and Vice-President who can bring some clarity and transparency to governmental actions.  We need to hear their promises for governance that puts the American people first.  The coronovirus has necessarily reduced the public participation in the event which is mostly now scheduled to be virtual.  We will not have thousands on the Mall or watching a parade down Pennsylvania Avenue or Inaugural Balls across the city.  So, this is sad, as Americans do love occasional pomp and circumstance, but I think most can agree that we need safety, security, and sanity in these events.  President-elect Biden has announced an ambitious program for his first few days – I look forward to hearing more soon.

          On Wednesday the House of Representatives voted to impeach the president for the second time. The grounds were listed in a single article which identified the insurrection as the reason for this action.  All Democrats voted in support as did 10 Republicans, who did so despite possible recriminations. Now, the big question is, will the Senate convict?  Mitch McConnell will be the Senate leader until the new Senators from Georgia have been certified by their state and sworn in, so he holds sway for now and has indicated that he would not entertain the impeachment until Tuesday, the 19^th.  If convicted, the Senate could then vote to prohibit the president from ever running for office again.  This is one of the main reasons a conviction is a good option, but will it happen?  67 votes are needed to convict in the Senate, so 17 Republicans would have to step up.  While the leader has said he is undecided at this time, some Republicans have spoken in favor of conviction, so there is a possibility.  How remote is it?  Some are saying just get him gone and let it be.  Others are saying that there are 5 people dead as a result of his direct encouragement toward violence and that there must be some accountability and a price paid; he cannot and should not get off free from his responsibility. I certainly agree with this position.

I would guess it might depend upon how powerful the departing president is seen and how much the party is tied to his favors.  Recent polls have indicated his popularity as low as 29% and as high as 44%, so that is flexible.  538 reports that his current status is at 38.5% averaged. (Rasmussen is the outlier at 48%.)  Perhaps the public will weigh in and let their senators hear from them – it is said that 75 % of the public voices disapproval of the insurrection. So, what do you think – is there any way that the Senate will convict?  If McConnell supports, will others follow?

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The presence of the more easily transmissible coronovirus UK variant has been identified in the US, so the next few months are expected to show very dismal results. We are approaching 24 million cases. The White House task force has just announced that there is no reserve on hold as had been expected. Governors across the nation who were expecting to receive more supplies and doses as they opened up lists to wider age groups are now scrambling to meet these needs.  The incoming Biden administration hopes to have all of this in hand shortly, even as they presume that there will be 500,000 deaths by the end of February. Biden is asking for Americans to voluntarily wear masks for the next 100 days and is planning to mandate masks in all federal facilities.

COVID stats 1/17/21 New York Times

Total US Cases: 23,916,400. Total new cases: 201,732.

Total deaths: 397,566. Total new deaths: 3,353.

Maryland stats: Total cases: 324,031. New cases: 3,292. Total deaths: 6,541.  New deaths: 47.

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I would love to say:' sit back and watch the new president at his inauguration and things will look up.' However, I am a realist and I know that our country is facing many serious issues: the virus, the high unemployment, the poor economy, plus the divisiveness in our country both in politics and race relations. None of these will be resolved easily or quickly, so I hope that we all will give the new administration time to clean up the major messes they are facing. I also am hopeful that promised uprisings across the country will not happen and those bent on causing trouble will have second thoughts in light of widespread security forces. Meanwhile, as his term heads to a close, the president is said to be considering up to 100 more pardons.

On these dismal concerns, maybe it is best to look again at the panda cam: Safe and sound asleep! Recent photos have shown him clambering around his play area.

‘Til next week – peace.