Monday, May 11, 2020

It is All in the Numbers (2)



Back in the Vietnam war era a draft lottery was instituted due to the unpopularity of that war and the reality that the draft was unfairly targeting the less fortunate, those who could not afford to go to college and get deferred, those who could not move to Canada or afford to get a doctors note for some type of injury or disability. So, those who did not serve - such as for heel spurs - perhaps, were spared eventually getting drafted and perhaps going to the war in southeast Asia. Consequently, to try for fairness, random numbers were assigned to birthdays arbitrarily drawn and given a ranking.  The first day drawn that year was number 258 which matched September 14th and that became number 1.

A certain number of draftees were to be selected, based on projected troop needs and numbers of selectees and that year the numbers stopped at 195 so it was considered important for young men to know their “number” or briefly, their chance at being drafted and they could make some plans as a result. If the number was higher than 195, they essentially had a pass. (These changes to the draft were a first step towards what eventually became what we now know as an all-volunteer military.)

So, once again knowing your numbers has become an important issue for Americans. How is your state fairing against the Covid-19 viral pandemic?  Do you have high infection rates or low ones?  Are you living in an urban area with modest numbers or in a more rural area with high numbers due to meat packing plants, prisons or nursing homes?
Here are some important numbers for today.  

US Population 328.2 million - MD - 6.3 million
Total Covid-19 cases in the US: 1.36 million -  Maryland (where I live) - totals -29,374
Total recovered patients: 208,000                      Maryland - recovered - 2,029
Total Deaths: 80,562                                            Maryland – Deaths - 1401

In the United States statistically, based on previous years data, about eight thousand people a day die from all causes.  In the last flu season approximately 161 people died from influenza each day.  As of May 6, 2020 - 2528 deaths were attributed on that day alone to the Covid-19 virus, just in the US. According to studies done by the New York Times there were three times as many deaths in early April this year in New York, when compared to previous years.

So, one might ask, what is the point here – we know people are dying from this virus.  Well, what is important to know is that the US is having many more deaths proportionately than other countries because our response to this pandemic has been haphazard at best. We did not control the spread and we have not tested enough or tracked for contacts. Currently the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) indicates that only eight million tests have been reported to date. The Presidents touts a number indicating that we have done more testing than any other country, but when compared to our total population, that number is tiny. 

Now, the virus is even reaching the White House where they are rapid testing each day, yet members of the Secret Service and White House staffers have tested positive.  Yet the word from there is to say, we need to open up for the economy, so we’ll probably lose a few more patients that way, but that is the cost of doing business, the country is suffering.  Actually, what is suffering is the President’s re-election bid and he will do everything in his power to get re-elected.  The New York Times today indicated that senior citizens, who are disproportionately afflicted by this virus, are not looking favorably on this president and his lack of candor on the subject.

But never fear – the reason I suggested that you pay attention to these numbers and those in your area is this – there is now a concerted effort by many of those in the right wing media and members of the blogging world to accuse governors, mayors and scientists of overstating the numbers of sick and dying patients just to undermine the President. (Personally, I do not understand just which part of refrigerated trucks full of bodies and burials in mass graves, that they do not understand about an overwhelmed system.) There is a reason behind the “open it up movements” protests, and that is to make it seem that this is much ado about nothing and only scare tactics of the left, but the same people who tried to undermine the ACA, deny climate change and who supported the Tea Party are back again – and probably with Putin’s blessing.  Facebook and Twitter both report removing hundreds of fake accounts touting conspiracy theories on these topics.

The CDC website currently has statistics, which I suggest you keep an eye on, at least as long as the website is not censored.  Apparently the 15-page Guideline it recently sent out for states to use as they reduced restrictions is being held up from wide spread distribution by the Task Force which wishes to tweak it a bit. I wonder about the document that will result. In my opinion we will not, as Jared Kushner recently stated “be rocking as we head into July”. Is your state opening up; do you think it should? Personally, as much as I would love to eat out at a nice restaurant, as long as my state numbers continue to increase, I shall dine at home. There is indeed, much to be afraid of these days, so do stay informed.

So, what else have I not mentioned – there is just so much happening now – AG Barr going around the Rule of Law and attempting to free General Flynn who has pled guilty to a felony – what part of that is untrue?

A young African American jogger is gunned down in Georgia with an attempted cover up as a ‘legal citizen’s arrest’ – is this a Trayvon Martin incident all over again?

Voting by mail – just what tactics will be used to dilute this widespread effort; how will gerrymandering be used to undermine the votes of minorities?

How will we, as a country, deal with the 33 million workers who have filed for unemployment?  How will we feed these huge numbers of needy people?

Do let me know your thoughts.  If you like what I have to say please share this site with your friends.



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