Next Steps?

 

Someone once said, “There is never a wrong time to do the right thing”. I have a feeling that phrase might run through President Biden’s mind his week. Leaving Afghanistan was not supposed to be this difficult. And – it was the right step.

·         The American Embassy was supposed to have more time to process visas for those special interpreters and aides to the Americans.

·         The Afghan army was supposed to offer some opposition to the Taliban; the Taliban was not supposed to race through the provinces like General Sherman across the South.

·         The Afghan president was not supposed to leave the country as the Taliban approached Kabul.

·         As American and NATO forces pulled out there appeared to be a vacuum that facilitated the advance of the Taliban army.

However, all of those things happened and greatly complicated the evacuation of Americans and Afghan citizens who helped American troops. It turned out that the only escape option was a single airport in Kabul, which was being guarded by hostile Taliban forces and secured by the Americans. Many advisors had predicted that it would take at least a year to eighteen months for the opposition to advance to Kabul. So, because of the failure of this planning, American military forces had to again be sent to Kabul to protect the evacuation. Over 6000 American troops are now facilitating this evacuation. Subsequently, the forces airlifted embassy personnel to the airport by helicopter.

The military troops have now flown thousands of people out of Afghanistan; thousands more are waiting, some at the airport, others in severe crushes of humanity outside the gates under a blazing sun and high temperatures. Afghan children and the elderly became dehydrated. The crush of the crowds as they surged toward the airport gate trampled some who stood in wait and took the life of a two-year-old child who fell beneath the hordes. Her mother survived but left her post to bury her child. This so should not be happening. This was not the intent of the president as he ordered troops home from a twenty-year war. Where did all of this go wrong?

In an address to the nation today, President Biden indicated that over 28,000 people have been evacuated from Afghanistan to date. He stated that the evacuations will continue past the August 31^st deadline if necessary. Some talks are going on with the Taliban to possibly extend the flights past the August 31^st negotiated deadline. Other reports note that the Taliban will not move into full control of the city until the Americans leave. Many residents report that the Taliban are already going door-to-door looking for weapons and following lists of former government employees. Additional reports indicate fears that reprisals will begin soon and desperation is increasing across the city, especially among women who believe they will no longer be allowed to work or attend school, despite Taliban claims to the contrary.

In the New York Times today, Adam Nossiter analyzed the Afghan war and Americas’ participation in that war. He indicated that the war the Americans thought they were fighting against the Taliban was not the one their Afghan allies were fighting. He believed this difference changed the effort into a neo-colonial adventure that was doomed from the start. The Taliban members were from the local tribes and villages and to many, their repressions were not considered out of order. Americans are horrified about the whipping of women and denial of their rights, but to many in remote villages, this was customary and supported. So, while women in Kabul made inroads against these traditional customs, those far from the capital did not agree. America could not build a society that resisted change.

Another perspective was noted today in an op-ed in the Washington Post. In this piece, a retired veteran military officer, who had been gravely wounded in Afghanistan, supported the withdrawal and the presidents’ decision. Dan Berchinski noted America could not outlast the Taliban. He indicated that once the mission changed from fighting terrorists to nation-building; we had lost whatever advantage we might have held over the Taliban. Although he is angry that he and others gave up limbs and lives for this effort, he faults the military for always predicting rosy outcomes despite realities that showed otherwise. And, although he agrees with the exit strategy, he also indicates that it should have been better managed. He also states in part: “to cite the messiness of the withdrawal as evidence that the war is worth continuing is shortsighted. Over the past several days, veterans such as myself have been asked if our service was in vain. My answer is that it won’t be if we draw the correct lesson from recent events and recognize that heartbreaking news footage, as awful as it is, is no justification for perpetuating an unwinnable war.”

Another opinion also appearing in the Post was that of Fareed Zakaria who after noting that over thirty meetings of the National Security Council (NSC) were held in recent months to plan the withdrawal, indicated that he thought the planning did not lead to an action plan, but perhaps memos about one. He felt that maybe the NSC and the Pentagon have too many layers of bureaucracy to affect a workable solution. Zakaria also cited the recent Afghanistan Papers published by the Post which reported that the military would give a sunny picture to the outsider, while to themselves, they spoke in less certain terms and voiced skepticism. He concluded that success is still possible if the administration stops meeting and starts doing.

I believe that the President made the correct decision to end a war that we were not going to ever win. I think the evacuation should have started sooner and that he should not have deferred to the wishes of the Afghan President to delay those moves. He obviously did not think that Kabul would fall to the Taliban so rapidly and thought that there was more time to move people. Reports came out this week that presidential aide Stephen Miller in the previous administration deliberately complicated the procedures which would have allowed our Afghan allies to get necessary permits to come to America. That, in addition to the hollowing out of experienced diplomats under both Secretaries of State Pompeo and Tillerson, made it difficult for a truncated staff to efficiently function. I think most Americans agree that we should try as much as possible to allow free passage to all of our allies who need to leave. However, I regret that the rapid takeover will keep many from outlying areas from navigating through dangerous checkpoints manned by the Taliban to make it safely to Kabul and the airport. That rapid collapse of the local military, which was not foreseen, was a serious miscalculation.

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Currently, the Delta variant continued its rapid swath across much of the South this past week as cases rose across the nation. The CDC is close to getting FDA approval to add a third vaccine or booster shot for many who are immunocompromised or over 65. Additionally, The World Health Organization begged developed nations to not give third shots when much of the less developed world has yet to get even one vaccine dose. In Afghanistan, it is estimated that approximately 2.4% are vaccinated, for example. That country has reported more than 7,000 deaths and over 150,000 infections, according to Reuters. Some social scientists are concerned about a wider gap between nations with vaccines and those without and the possibility of even greater social upheaval due to the lack of adequate healthcare infrastructure. Meanwhile, Governor DeSantis of Florida is threatening local school boards with loss of funding should they require masks in their schools.  He continues to rants even as his state reports a total of 3.04 million cases, with 12,636 new cases of Delta variants and an overall total of 42,252 deaths. Alabama has reported having no available ICU beds due to its overwhelming level of severe unvaccinated COVID patients. The top five states with percentages of populations afflicted are Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, and Tennessee. (You remember Tennessee, the state where the vaccine director was fired and they threatened health care workers in recent weeks!) Nationally vaccinations have begun to rise again with a daily average of around 1 million doses a day. Maybe some people are finally getting the message!

In Maryland, the new cases are more than ten times what they were a few short weeks ago. The state rate of being fully vaccinated is now 60%.

COVID Stats – NY Times:

US totals:  Total Cases: 37,777,607. New Cases: 149,675. 

Total Deaths: 628,288.  New deaths: 1,008.

Maryland Totals: 8/20/21 – Total Cases: 484,847. New Cases: 1,206.

Total Deaths: 9,922. New Deaths: 6.

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Fortunately, Hurricane Henri was not as devastating as it could have been to New York and New England, although it left lots of rain and some power outages along the way. Sending wishes for sunnier days!

I cannot quit today without linking to the birthday party for the panda cub Xiao Qi Ji as that cute little one turns one-year-old! Happy Birthday, little guy!

‘Til next week – peace!